Forget the futurist superstars, according to this article in Wired magazine, an industry of ‘garden variety’ futurists is starting to emerge.
It’s an interesting article, but I take issue with the critique of Y2K predictions being wrong. There were scenarios of catastrophe offered well before the date and I would argue such scenarios led to wide-spread investment ensuring that, for example, planes didn’t fall out of the sky.
When people say, ‘look out you’re gonna step on a piece of dog poo!’ you don’t take their advice, avoid the crap, and then tell them their prediction was wrong. You just say, ‘Thanks man, gee, I came really close to stepping on that!’.
Futuring is not so much about predicting what will happen, but rather what could happen, and using that information to make informed choices.