Tim Longhurst is a communication futurist and innovation expert. He consults, speaks and blogs on topics of people trends and the communication techniques that shape them. More info on Tim is available at timlonghurst.com
What a day! I’ve just arrived home from Sydney’s Think Big Forum at ANZ Stadium…
I was invited to ‘keynote speak’ at the Forum when I was in Beijing and I decided to change my flights to be included on the speaker list. The way it was put to me was simple, “It’s a business forum, but we’re being innovative about it…” it was to be “degustation-inspired”, with the food theme kept throughout. I was invited to be the ‘group dessert’. What a title. How could I say no?
The day opened with Kylie Kwong talking about her business trials and tribulations (key insight - she swears by the original “E-Myth” book) and was followed by a diverse ‘tasting menu’ of speakers who each had twenty minutes to share their knowledge of the topic.
The format meant that the sessions were fast-paced - 20 minutes each - enough time to get a sense of whether you liked the topic; liked the speaker and wanted more. And that’s where it got interesting - after each session, we were invited to attend a “Master Class” with the speaker we’d just seen. If you were prepared to forgo the next scheduled speakers, you could ‘go deeper’ into the topic. What a great conference model!
So in the afternoon it was time for ‘dessert’… Well, here’s how my 40 minutes broke down…
Introduced myself and my work as a futurist / innovation expert
Talked about futures studies / innovation and the role they play in business - ie. new products and processes… It all starts by asking the key innovator’s question: “Is there a better way?…”.
Talked about the rise of BRIC nations (Brasil, Russia, India and China) and specifically about the rise of China… Then, since I’m fresh of the plane, taught some valuable Mandarin to the crowd “CHINA - LET’S GO!”. Seeing 170 people on their feet cheering in butchered Mandarin was one of the most surreal moments of the day and confirmation that this was a fun crowd.
Described the trends I’m seeing in business, particularly some highlights of my favourite innovation programs:
The Clean Plumber - constantly innovating, the business’ latest move is replacing a utility truck with a motorcycle for many plumbing jobs - it zips around the Sydney streets with ease; saves on fuel and keeps the business’ promise to be on time.
Dell’s Ideastorm, which I believe is one of the best examples of open innovation, particularly given that Dell actually takes advice and turns it into improved products.
Australia 2020 - inviting an entire country to participate in your innovation program is a brave move for a Prime Minister - if Rudd pulls it off (by implementing good ideas or at least explaining why he’s not using the ideas he doesn’t like), it could be the beginning of a new attitude of innovation from Canberra
and Google… I mentioned the 80/20 rule (20% of time dedicated to innovation), but I also would have liked to discuss their use of Google Labs, which is fantastic.
Gave ten tips on how to spot a great innovation culture - that was fun because the pens came out and the heads started nodding - I think I was talking to a room of innovators!
Dropped in a top tip - innovation programs are a great ‘Gen Y’ retention tool because they give younger employees a voice and demonstrate that all staff opinions are valued - especially if ideas are acted upon!
Examined the major shift from closed/R&D-based product development to open/inclusive innovation programs…
And BOOM! It was 40 minutes… Wait, what?! We’re just getting started… Oh man!
I guess that’s the problem with tasting menus - sometimes you just wish you could have a little more of each dish - and I did get twice as much time as most of the other speakers, after all…
I invited feedback from the audience either through email/linkedin or my blog, so it will be interesting to see if people have something to say here on this post.
After my presentation, all sorts of business leaders shared their stories with me - I met heaps of bankers, a bullet maker (REALLY! YIKES!), a guy whose business is hydraulics, a guy that runs a solar-panel installation business, a bunch of innovation people from Telstra and ANZ, a logistics guy (who told me truck stories), a recruiter, a few marketing types, a couple of event managers… It was a good mix, that’s for sure.
It was a great day (a good way to spend my birthday!) and a really warm crowd to welcome me back to Sydney. Can’t wait to see my family, friends and clients and get settled back into Sydney!
Congratulations and thank you to the NSW Business Chamber and to the BigThinkers who made the day such a great start to my Spring in Sydney…
Being a futurist is about anticipating trends, rather than making specific predictions, however, today I’ve decided to do both. First of all, after winning her THIRD gold medal in the pool today, Stephanie Rice is going to be in the public eye a lot more than before. Additionally, I predict a special edition box of Rice Bubbles bearing her name:
Brace yourselves, Australia!
(Americans mistakenly call Rice Bubbles “Rice Krispies”, in case you yanks were wondering…).
Getting the big picture on global trends has long been an interest of mine. Over time, I’ve collected resources that help me get a sense of the directions in which the world is shifting, and the way things are today.
Recently I was thinking about the research I would like at my fingertips, but don’t yet have. I’ve included in this post both the resources I’ve found useful, along with the resources I wish I had… You’ll see what’s missing - there’s no link if I don’t have the research/resource. Let me know what you think is missing, too!
There are a whole bunch of indexes out there that attempt to rank/compare countries. None are perfect, but they can help add to our understanding - but only if we know of their existence!
If you find the resources here helpful, please let me know in the comments, as if people find it useful I will endeavor to update this post with new info/research as I find it.
I know that’s strictly speaking more the role of a wiki or other knowledge management tool, but first I want to see if enough people have opinions/ideas about the data I’ve gathered before I spend time creating a community around this kind of information.
Environment - Most/Least polluting nations -
Environment - Most endangered species -
Environment - Most/Least polluted countries -
Environment - Most/Least polluted cities -
Finance - Largest economies -
Geography - Population Density - InfoPlease (quoting CIA World Factbook)
Media (Traditional) - Largest traditional media corporations - The Nation
Media (New) - Largest new media businesses -
Politics - Mass exodus - countries people are fleeing -
Politics - Mass admittance - countries people are fleeing to - Politics - Largest nations - by population - InfoPlease (quoting CIA World Factbook)Geography - Population Density - InfoPlease (quoting CIA World Factbook)
Politics - Largest nations - by per capita wealth - InfoPlease (quoting CIA World Factbook)
Politics - Largest cities
Politics - Largest international agencies
Politics - Nation size by area - InfoPlease (quoting CIA World Factbook)
Politics - Non-Government Organisations (NGO’s) - by subscribers/members
Politics - Non-Government Organisations (NGO’s) - by financing
Politics - Countries hosting refugees - Infoplease
Politics - Main sources of refugees - Infoplease
Politics - Internally Displaced persons - Infoplease
Politics - Armed Conflicts - Recently Suspended - Infoplease
Politics - Ongoing Armed Conflicts - Ongoing - Infoplease
Politics - Countries with Nuclear Weapons Capability - Infoplease
Politics - Largest Military Expenditures - InfopleasePolitics - Arms Sales to Developing Nations - Infoplease
Politics - Most/Least corrupt - Global Integrity Index, Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index
Politics - Most/Least stable - Global Peace Index
Politics - Biggest donors/recipients of foreign aid - BBC (Graph)
Social - Highest/Lowest Literacy - InfoPlease (quoting CIA World Factbook)
Social - Highest/Lowest Infant Mortality rate - InfoPlease (quoting CIA World Factbook)
Social - Biggest threats facing humanity -
Social - Happiest nations - Wikipedia
Social - Faiths / Religions (ranked by followers) -
Social - Faiths / Religions (ranked by wealth) -
Social - Most recognised brands Interbrand/BusinessWeek
Social - Largest employers -
Social - Global top ten jobs -
Social - Most peaceful - Global Peace Index
Technology - Highest/Lowest rate of mobile phone usage -
Technology - Highest/Lowest rate of internet usage -
Technology - Largest data breaches - Boing Boing
Scanning the “Media” section at Blackwell’s bookshop is one of my favourite things to do in Oxford. Sure, I love the web, but being able to scan and access books in real-time using my eyes and hands is something I still enjoy, while I’m sure it seems a little quaint to many of my techno-futurist readers.
On today’s scan, I noticed “Big Ideas” a book of terms us futurists bandy about to give some of the trends going on in the world. Online resources such as urban dictionary or wiktionary are great starting points for such buzzwords and their definitions, but it was nice to see someone with a sense of humour and a great way with words spin these words into print.
For those of you without a copy of the book in front of you, here are the terms Harkin defines, complete with a Google-search link so you can explore their meaning. Sure, it’s not as comfortable as snuggling up in a sofa with the book, but it takes less trees, and let’s face it, digital is very now.
I’ll confess I don’t recognise all the terms listed below, so I’m going to do some clicking myself. James has left room at the back of his book for the reader’s big ideas, so it only seems natural that my “Comments” area is the perfect place for me to invite you to post your big ideas!
ABC News (USA) is preparing for what may be their most important ever newscast - and they’re accepting submissions from citizen journalists around the world.
Our biosphere is offering us multiple signals indicating the systems on which we rely are under stress. There are hopeful signs that there is a willingness in the world for major technological innovation and cultural changes, but what if we ultimately settle for business-as-usual? What will 2015, 2050, 2070 and 2100 look like?
Embracing the trend of user-generated content, ABC News’ Earth 2100 website explains how you can get involved:
You, our reporters from the future, will invent short videos from the years 2015, 2050, 2070, and 2100. The ideas and events in your videos will be combined with the projections of top scientists, historians, and economists to form a powerful web-based narrative about the dangers of our current path.
The most compelling reports will also form the backbone of the two-hour prime time ABC News special: Earth 2100, airing this fall.
I’d love to know your thoughts - let me know if you’d like to submit a video - I’d love to track your progress.
Sydney-based futurist Richard Neville is now posting youtube videos with bite-size chunks of insight… His use of constantly changing background images - themed to his words - is really engaging and if I ever do stand-up youtube videos look out for this technique - I’m feeling inspired…
In this video he defines “futurists” as anyone who is prepared to live in three timezones - past, present and future. He explains this well and I’ve decided to start a post to list definitions of futurist that I like…
Beads of sweat had begun to appear on Business Futurist Craig Rispin’s forehead. It was a combination of factors - stage lights; a heavy purple jacket; and enthusiasm. It was late 2006 and Rispin was holding court at the Last Thursday Club marketing event. A keynote slide on Second Life (SL) appeared on the screen behind him. Were these marketers even aware that SL existed? He feigned surprise when he was greeted by a sea of shaking heads. Of course they didn’t know. Here was yet another opportunity for connection and innovation and it was passing marketers by. Rispin hit his remote. A movie lifted from the internet began playing on the screen.
A woman’s voice introduced the crowd to Second Life, a world where anything is possible. A world that is built by its community; complete with its own real-world tradable currency, the Linden. 3D images of human-looking characters communicating in giant cities danced across the screen. It looked like a typical street scene in a busy city, until on of the characters leapt into the air and began to fly. Internet based; real money changing hands, human-like characters that can fly. “People spend real money in this thing?”, quizzed an audience member.” The speaker nodded his head. “There is a lot of money is in this thing, and major brands are moving in.” Behind Rispin, the video’s poster frame made the pitch: Second Life - Your World, Your Imagination.
It seemed bizarre to me. Was this really a vision of the future that excited people? Sitting at our computers connecting in a high-tech, low touch environment? In a nation with fast growing rates of obesity and depression, was remaining virtually motionless and physically isolated for long periods of time really what we needed?
Rispin impressed me and his speech on future trends was engaging, but I couldn’t match his enthusiasm when it came to virtual worlds. “I’ve got enough in my first life, thanks” summed it up nicely, and a quick search of the expression “First Life” on Google indicated these sentiments were shared by others. Check out getafirstlife.com for a one page parody. My first life carried on without a 3D virtual world interruption for almost a year.
A few weeks ago, entrepreneur and event convenor, Vicki Prout began enthusing about the potential of SL and virtual worlds via email. She was promoting an upcoming workshop she was convening on that very topic. Vicki doesn’t do things by halves, so she had decided to import Californian Second Life guru Dell Wolfensparger to run the program.
Since Craig has spoken back in 2006, millions more people had registered and tried out SL. Not everyone stayed, but some had, and there were thousands of active users doing business and having fun in this virtual world. As a communication futurist, it was time I went and explored.
Dell Wilberg and Teami Zeami stood in Venice having a conversation. They weren’t real in an analogue sense, but in a digital sense they existed. They were conversing. Dell Wilberg wore a cowboy hat and talked about the architecture around them. Teami Zeami, bald and handsome, listened intently.
Dell Wolfensparger and Tim Longhurst sat in a corporate training room on George St, Sydney. They were real in an analogue sense, but at this moment, they existed more digitally than in any other way. Dell wore a cowboy hat and tapped at a keyboard. Tim was bald, handsome and reading, preparing to tap back.
The training room was filled with a mix of communication and education professionals. In SL, we were each represented by avatars. I adjusted my settings to have my avatar look as much like me as possible, but most of the others didn’t bother modifying their avatars at this early stage. Our avatars were exploring Venizia, a ’sim’ based on the real world Venice that was designed by Wolfensparger.
Prior to entering the training room, it is fair to say that I was apprehensive about a game that appeared to have relatively poor graphics (I’m from the Xbox Generation) and that I guessed was designed to suck the money out of thousands of sedentary fools.
NOTE: This post is to be continued. It’s in draft form, but I have to go and do real world work… I thought I’d post it incomplete because I’d rather get this out there and finish it soon… In the next installment - how I spent my 16 hours in Second Life…
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Footnote regarding Craig Rispin: Soon after seeing him speak at Last Thursday Club, I met Craig at Australia’s futurist convention, Ausforesight, in November 2006. Our conversation quickly moved to the topic of how he was now able to take his ideas all over the world through speaking. He’s been a great friend and collegue this year and he has been a great adviser to me regarding my consulting business. Even though I’d describe him as a turbo capitalist and he’d probably describe me as a serial activist, we get along like a house on fire.
Laura F-P: Tim, have you seen this news yet: http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/the-21-edicts-from-the-chinese-governments-propaganda-unit/2008/08/14/1218307016317.html
Interesting, I picked it up form a front page SMH article, which does not appear at all on [...]
What a day! I’ve just arrived home from Sydney’s Think Big Forum at ANZ Stadium…
ABC News (USA) is preparing for what may be their most important ever newscast - and they’re accepting submissions from citizen journalists around the world.
